Greek Leaders Turn Focus to Preparing for Elections
By NIKI KITSANTONIS and RACHEL DONADIO
Published: March 12, 2012
ATHENS — With the ink not yet dry on a complex agreement to write down more than $130 billion of Greek debt, Greece’s political leaders leaped into full campaign mode on Sunday to prepare for national elections expected in late April or early May.
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Times Topics: Greece | European Debt Crisis
Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos on Sunday submitted his formal bid for the leadership of the once-mighty Socialist Party; as the only candidate for the position he is all but guaranteed to replace the current leader, former Prime Minister George Papandreou.
Meanwhile, Antonis Samaras, the leader of the center-right New Democracy, now leading in the polls but not expected to win a solid majority, tacked hard to the right in a rousing speech on Sunday that tapped into fears ofimmigration and rising crime.
Mr. Venizelos, one of the government’s chief negotiators on the debt deal, is expected to remain the finance minister until a date is set for elections.
But the vote is likely to end the Socialists’ dominance of Greek politics. Two years of harsh austerity measures in exchange for foreign rescue funds have radically reduced Greek living standards, leading to the implosion of the Socialist party, known as Pasok, a crisis in New Democracy and the rise of groups on the far left and far right.
Analysts say the political landscape is so fluid that it is almost impossible to predict an outcome. “Nothing will surprise me in these elections,” said Takis Michas, a political analyst.
Undecided voters account for about 30 percent of the electorate, according to opinion polls. Also, turnout is expected to be low as voters reject the two largest parties that not only signed off on a loan agreement that makes Greece a ward of its creditors but also created the debt problem in the first place.
Economically and politically, Greece can ill afford costly national elections that may not yield a clear winner. But socially, it cannot afford not to hold them, as the political capital of the interim government of Prime Minister Lucas Papademos is running out.
Mr. Papademos, an economist, took office in November with a mandate to negotiate Greece’s loan agreement with a troika of foreign lenders — the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund — and to complete a deal in which private bondholders voluntarily took losses on about $131 billion of Greek debt. The new loan agreement was reached last month and the debt restructuring was completed last week.
But more pain is expected. Under the new agreement, Greece has cut the benchmark private sector minimum wage by 22 percent and has pledged to lay off public sector workers. Earlier austerity measures — mostly tax increases and wage cuts — have already caused such a rapid decline in living standards and confidence that the political parties have not at all caught up to the transformation.
A poll conducted by the polling company Public Issue in the last week of February found New Democracy to be leading with 28 percent, compared with 11 percent for the Socialists. It also showed a significant rise in left-wing groups that opposed Greece’s loan agreement. The Communist Party, which never broke from Moscow during the cold war, tied with the Socialists at 11 percent, while the radical left party known as Syriza was at 12 percent. The more moderate Democratic Left showed gains at 16 percent.
Addressing the party caucus on Saturday, Mr. Venizelos said that Pasok was open to cooperation, but not unconditionally. “When a country is in crisis, consensus is necessary but consensus is not carte blanche,” he said. In an indirect jab at New Democracy, with whom Pasok shares power in an uneasy coalition, Mr. Venizelos condemned those who he said “are in the government and opposition at the same time.”
Analysts say the only way to ensure political stability in Greece would be for the Socialists and New Democracy to form a new coalition government. But in an address to his party’s congress on Sunday, Mr. Samaras ruled out that possibility. “I want my hands free,” he said. “A clear majority is not crucial for New Democracy or for me, it’s crucial for the country to be governed.”
Mr. Samaras also struck a tough stance on crime and illegal immigration in an effort to stem defections from his party to far-right parties that have capitalized on popular fears on those issues. About half of Greece’s 11 million population lives in Athens, where crime and illegal immigration have caused alarm in recent years.
In recent weeks, support for the anti-immigration Popular Orthodox Rally, known as L.A.O.S. for its Greek initials, has been dropping. But the Public Issue poll found that the ultranationalist Golden Dawn group, whose members routinely perform Nazi salutes at rallies and whose base is among Athenians fearful of immigrants, is polling close to the 3 percent threshold needed to enter Parliament.
Mr. Michas, the political analyst, added that support for smaller, politically extreme parties would not translate into votes if the authorities managed a “smooth countdown to the elections,” by showing leadership in the face of attacks by angry citizens on politicians and other figures who supported Greece’s loan deal.
“The street has been taken over by small groups whose agenda is to use violence to stop debate,” Mr. Michas said. “The authorities have to claim back the street.”
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