Return of Romney
The race for the Republican presidential contender continued on 11 February with caucuses in the state of Maine, but equally importantly (if not more so) the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) presidential straw poll.
The front-runner, former governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney, whose surge to GOP nomination was stopped by triple victory of the former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri last week, won the straw poll by 38% of the vote.
Santorum, who is steadily profiling himself as the conservative alternative to more moderate Romney, came in second with 31%, while the former House Speaker and early favourite of social conservatives Newt Gingrich and libertarian Texas Congressman Ron Paul who decided to stay in Maine and campaign there won 15% and 12% respectively.
Addressing the CPAC, Romney pitched his “severely conservative” self to conservative leaders and activists, with some success. He distinguished himself as the only candidate from either party who never worked in Washington D.C. [for reasons best known to themselves people tend to believe that not knowing how something you are supposed to run works is a great quality {not exclusive to the US}].
Obviously he won the straw poll, but immediately Sarah Palin, former Alaska governor, GOP Vice-Presidential candidate for John McCain in 2008 and 'mother of conservative, Tea Party pundits' warned Romney that he needs to convince and motivate social conservatives if he plans to defeat Obama. If one didn't know better, this sounded like an endorsement to Romney, or at least acceptance of the inevitability of Romney's win in the primary contest.
Santorum also benefited from CPAC straw poll, winning more than twice the votes of Newt Gingrich in that ever-so-important second place and fight for dominance over social conservatives' support. With victories in four states, clear momentum from three wins last week and comparatively impressive showing in CPAC, Santorum has a strong argument of being a stronger conservative challenger to Romney than Gingrich.
Ron Paul was invited to CPAC, but decided to stay in Maine and continue his campaign, well aware that his stances on wars, foreign policy, same-sex marriages and general non-intervention of federal government in personal issues and choices could hardly win him much support among the CPAC attendees.
Indeed, the Maine [non-binding] caucuses went narrowly to Mitt Romney, who won 39% of votes to 36% for Ron Paul, who remained the only GOP contender not to win a single contest, but in sheer number of delegates does not trail much behind Gingrich and Santorum [with 10% of delegates allocated, Romney has more than 3 to 1 lead to the second placed rival]. He announced his campaign would continue contesting smaller, caucuses states, bypassing larger and 'winner-take-all' states to cumulate delegates and save time and money.
Santorum again did significantly better than Gingrich, coming in third with 18% to Newt's 6%. Neither of candidates campaigned in Maine, rightly assessing they had little chance to make an impression in a moderate, independent north Atlantic state. Nevertheless, Santorum's performance in Maine, coupled with his strong showing in CPAC straw poll, show that he captured social conservative GOP activists and profiled himself as the alternative to Romney in this race, at least among the grass-roots.
In addition, Gingrich suffered another blow, this time collaterally. In a mock advertisement 'targeting' comedian Stephen Colbert, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, leader of Democrats in the Congress, slammed Colbert for attacking her friend Newt Gingrich. For majority of Republicans, Pelosi is the worst arch-nemsis (worse even than President Barack Obama himself) and the embodiment of the worst political nightmare. Such an 'endorsement' from Pelosi could prove as (if not even more) harmful for Gingrich than testimonies from his second ex-wife.
Republicans will take a short break from major events and primaries after a long week (Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota, Maine caucuses, Missouri primary, CPAC) until the 22 February presidential debate and 28 primaries in Arizona and Michigan.
It will give some time to all four candidates to revisit their game plans, do some more fund-raising, try to ensure an endorsement or two before Super Tuesday on 6 March, when ten states will vote and more than 400 delegates will be awarded.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Reporter, New Europe
Ivan Delibasic is an EU affairs journalist with several years' experience of editing and writing in Brussels.
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